Do you really see

What you call the bright blue sky?

Do you really feel

What its like to be touched in the heart?

Have you tasted freedom?

Question everything, be alert,

That is a free mind.

But can the world exist

Without faith and belief?

Why do you want to know everything?

Without questions, there is no identity.

You don’t know your place in the system.

You don’t exist.

You’re disillusioned.

A free mind is a mind free

Of Identity.

Is there something wrong with the world today?

Maybe.

The Unwaba Revelations lies unread.

I’m unsatisfied with my performance.

Exams are approaching, charging head on,

their instantaneous acceleration increasing

But time seems like a slow reaction

Don’t feel like integrating myself with it

And my bad jokes get worse.

The tension is just too much to handle.

Mosquitoes get attracted to Raghav’s black kurta

but get repelled by Bhaskar’s fragrant odomos.

Pracession seems to have taken over Prashant.

He sits with his head down on the table-

God knows what he’s thinking about.

I pity him- but i understand his situation.

Perhaps time will answer all questions.

I don’t wish to wait till then;

It will be too late.

Sitting under the evergreen aloe vera

I’ve just realized how utterly pointless

this poem is.

Raghav is smiling like he never did in his life -

reasons unnecessary at this juncture

For they might lead to scandals.

Staying out of them is good for your health.

My stomach churns breakfast bread,

Why do i feel so dead?

Rhymes worse than a manticore

But i want more.

Enough.

This poem tends to infinity no matter what.

Such unhindered flow of thought

is unparalleled in the history of my

colourful, eventful, nostalgic RV life.

So i shall stop.

I suggest that you should first read the article before reading this review. This was also done as part of our homework.

This article from the economist is one written in hindsight about the recent global financial meltdown more commonly known as the sub-prime mortgage crisis. Rather than talking about how the crisis took place, the focus of the article remains on the economic theory and policies and tries to point out what really went wrong with them. It begins by talking about the reputation of economics as a subject itself; how it was used to explain ever more types of phenomena; how economists occupied the center stage of all policy frameworks. It goes on to say that with the “economic calamity”, even the reputation of economics took a beating. But just because of a few mistakes of the economists, it doesn’t mean that economics as a whole should be discredited and the basic principles forgotten.

The article also tries to find out how much truth there is to the statement that the macro and financial economists helped cause the crisis, that they failed to spot it and that they have no idea how to fix it. Lack of regulation in the markets was one of the main causes of the crisis. For example, Hedge funds weren’t closely watched, street banks could also do investment banking, etc. This was because of the belief of the efficiency of the markets. It also led to the formation of various financial instruments which were thought to be beneficial but ultimately led to the collapse. Rash decisions were made because of absurd assumptions like housing prices would always rise.

The fact that most people didn’t see this crisis coming was due to flawed financial models which did not take into account all the factors. Due to distribution of risk through various derivative instruments, it was impossible to pinpoint where the risk would be. This was intensified because the collapse in the housing sector then spread to other sectors at the same time. No one had anticipated this and those who had some idea that there was something wrong didn’t know how bad the situation was. Macroeconomists were also at fault because their models failed to see any problems in the financial markets as they assumed efficiency of the capital markets. This means that they assumed that the present asset price accurately reflects current information in the market place to a high degree. This is was obviously wrong because the prices of the housing sector were disproportionately high.

The traditional methods of monetary policy failed to solve the problem as the interest rates in the economy were too low to be reduced any further. This crisis has led to some radical changes in macroeconomic theory about how to deal with asset bubbles in particular, and such a financial crunch in general. The author terms this a “creative destruction” and calls for a paradigm shift in mindset to make economics as “one” science rather than discrete branches which are not related to each other.

However true that may be, I believe, that economics is basically a subject which ultimately tries to understand and model a variable : human behaviour. And human behaviour changes very quickly with time. Hence, we cannot really say that any particular type of economic policy is generally wrong and then sit and wait for some time when we get a universal economic theory applicable to all problems. Different solutions may be applicable at different times.So, downturns of this kind will keep happening and we will have to keep learning from them. Even after correcting our past mistakes, there is bound to be something new which comes up. If we want to make any worthwhile predictions and preventions of such events, economic theory must keep evolving. The only real solution lies in versatility and transformation to catch up with the changing world.

To conclude, one must not forget that apart from the mistakes of the economists mentioned above, the single most important factor which contributed to the present crisis is greed , which is part of human nature.

Speculation, in the literary sense can mean ” the contemplation or consideration of some subject ” or “a conclusion or opinion reached by such contemplation”. But in finance , speculation means a financial action that does not promise safety of the initial investment along with the return on the principal sum.It is the process of selecting investments with higher risk in order to profit from an anticipated price movement. This being a higher risk investment, it also offers the chance of large gains, especially when trading in commodities, stocks, etc.

Investment Vs. Speculation.

Sometimes, people confuse these two terms but they are actually quite specific when it comes to financial jargon. Identifying speculation can be best done by distinguishing it from investment. According to Ben Graham (known as the founder of financial analysis) in ‘Intelligent Investor’ , the prototypical defensive investor is “…one interested chiefly in safety ..” An investment in a general sense could mean any act of placing money in a financial vehicle with the intent of producing returns over a period of time. Adam Smith said that a person is a speculator if he is ready to pursue short-term opportunities for profit. His investments are more liquid whereas those of the conventional investors are usually fixed. According to Keynes,  investment is “the activity of forecasting the prospective yield of assets over their whole life,” in contrast to speculation, which he called “the activity if forecasting the psychology of the market”. Speculation has come to mean different things to different people, yet still retains something of its original meaning: namely, to reflect or theorize without a factual basis.

This gives the rise to the concept of “Value Investment” , which Ben Graham spoke about. It basically tells us about realising the difference between the value and the price of a security (i.e., stock, bond, title to real estate etc). He also says that the value and price ultimately tend to converge over a period of time but at any given point in time they may diverge (sometimes by a wide margin). And people who take advantage of such price fluctuations, only seeking to profit from movement of the price rather than the underlying value of the security are speculators.

What exactly is speculation?

What we can understand from this analysis is that for example, lets say the share price of a company is grossly undervalued due to various psychological reasons in the market and that this has nothing to do with the value of the company based on its real production. In this case, it would make sense for an investor to buy into the company as the disparity between the price and value is large and hence the “margin of safety” for the investor is bigger.On the other hand, to buy a security on the basis of its current popularity and in the hope that its price, reflecting this popularity, will shortly rise is obviously speculation.We can then say that an investor is a buyer interested in dividends,and principal, and a speculator is a buyer interested in resale price only. Concluding from above , we can also say that investment is over a longer period of time while speculation involves very short term buying and selling.

To gain by speculation, a speculator must be able to foresee price changes. It requires no knowledge of intrinsic value as such, but only of what people are going to believe intrinsic value to be. Hence, how to foretell changes in opinion is the heart of the problem of speculation.

Is speculation good or bad ?

Firstly, we have to understand that it is impossible to completely stop speculation; it can only be regulated. Just as when someone is hedging their bet , there has to be someone on the other end to take an equivalent risk – in the same way, when someone is buying to invest , there has to be (in most cases) a speculator at the other end willing to sell the security to him.

It is a controversial point whether the presence of speculators increases or decreases the short-term volatility in a market. Their provision of capital and information may help stabilize prices closer to their true values. It helps to smooth spikes in prices, since speculators only make a profit if they buy something cheaply and sell it at a higher price.For example, if the price of a particular stock is low they buy it and in so doing increase the price. And if the price is high they sell it and lower the price.

On the other hand, there can also be destabilising speculation.This always involves speculators borrowing the object of speculation in order to exert a much greater leverage effect on the market. This can be problematic if the speculators assume risks that they themselves cannot bear, if their speculation goes wrong. The major institutional speculators are mostly with limited liability that in the case of failure can go bankrupt but can themselves only bear a fraction of the losses that they cause.As was seen in the case of the recent crisis, many huge institutions were bailed out by the government using the tax-payers money. So, in the end , the common man or the small investor is the one who loses out the most when speculation goes wrong.

Secondly, the leverage effect is tricky because the traded quantities are so large that an individual speculator can change the prices.It can also cause prices to deviate from their intrinsic value if speculators trade on misinformation. For example, price rises due to speculative purchasing cause further speculative purchasing in the hope that the price will continue to rise. This creates a positive feedback loop in which prices rise dramatically above the underlying value. This is more commonly known as an economic bubble.

Speculation can have disastrous effects on the economy and hence it must be restrained. It can never be completely abolished. A way of limiting it is making physical delivery compulsory for every transaction. Clearly, the only good thing we can obtain from speculation is a learning a lesson from it when something goes wrong.

Inspiration is hard to find.

Writing about

Shades of brilliant colours

of the trees, the earth,

the sky.

After the rain,

the green is greener,

the blue is bluer.

That would make a nice poem.

Currently, im not interested.

Exam time-totally stressed;

The common room shelters

papers,textbooks, notebooks,

dictionaries,ink bottles,sugar,

murku, school bags, and

to add to the beauty-

The sixth edition of

Halliday-Resnick-Walker

Fundamentals of Physics.

My body needs sleep

But i cant.

What would lighten up my mood?

The sun is unwilling.

Can someone tell him there’s no point

playing hide and seek.

Blast the damn world.

Its full of selfish sadists.

But being cynical doesnt help

Cuz you have to live with it.

Death doesnt seem too bad an option.

But we’re too scared to try it;

there’s no second chance.

Can we have an unclustered society?

Open minds, freedom-

no conditions, no conditioners

just you and your 65 years or

whatever of life.

Do what the hell you want with it;

as long you dont cut anyone else’s short.

We’re forever behind bars.

Im looking at myself,

my place here,

my existence,

I dont know whats the purpose.

Dont want to find out.

I want to do what I think

is best….not to waste anytime.

Should start now, But

currently, im not interested.

Get Serious – Meghnad Desai , Indian Express , Jun 28 , 2009

Meghnad Desai , in his article, Get Serious, highlights the shortcomings of the Indian economy from the perspective of the poor indian in general and the farming community in particular. He also vigorously criticizes the apparently callous and indifferent attitude of the Indian bureaucracy towards this group of people. He particularly blasts Mr Sharad Pawar ,the agriculture minister of India, for his negligence of the poor people and his more than necessary interest in cricket. The article ends with a prediction that upcoming budget would mainly please the middle classes and that the top leaders of the country should realise and learn that the impoverished need more attention than they have been getting since India became independent in 1947. There is also in the end some hope ,however faint it may seem, for change to occur if India decides to ‘get serious’ .

What comes out very clearly in the article is that India is still very much dependent on that 60 % or more population of the country that is involved in agriculture.This is evident from the fact that agriculture still has the largest share in the Indian GDP. So, the government cannot afford to neglect it.Its true that even today, as we claim that India is going to become a superpower and what not, there are innumerable problems which are still there at the roots and need to be cured. As an example Mr. Desai says that even a single failed monsoon can bring the entire country down on its knees today.

I feel that Mr. Desai is being too contemptuous and cynical in the way he writes about the ‘governing elite’ of india. He makes them sound as if each and every one of them is only there to fill their pockets. That might be true in some or most cases but it doesnt mean that there is no one out there who genuinely cares for the masses. I believe that it is impossible in this democracy for anyone to get elected by the people unless he/she does something or promises to do something for the people. Then how far he/she carries out that promise is a different matter but if they dont do what they preach , the chances of reelection surely get reduced. In this respect , I feel that Mr. Desai’s views reagarding the agriculture minister are grossly unjustified. Just beacause he has gone to london doesnt mean that he has stopped working and is taking a vacation. It doesnt in the least mean that he is oblivious of the pains that the farmers are facing today. Will the monsoon arrive earlier if Sharad Pawar comes back to India ?

The rest of the article, is fairly straightforward and doesnt raise any new issues. Its the same old thing : the rich are getting richer and the poor poorer and the tax burden on the poor is a  case of harsh inequality.  This doesnt go to say that the issue is any less relevant.  So how do you solve the problem? Giving them huge loan waivers is one way but its not the most efficient because it promotes moral hazard. Giving them subsidized electricity is another way. The farmers mainly need this electricity to pump water from wells and to use other farm equipment. Providing the farmers with solar water pumps at a subsidized rate would be a much better solution as it not only promotes green energy but stops the government from pampering the farmers like small babies every year. The key is to give the farmers indirect benefits and the NREGA will go a long way in doing that , if implemented properly. A progressive rate of taxation could come of use but is difficult to introduce as it affects the popularity of the government.

All in all , India seriously needs change, not in the amount spent on agriculture but in the ‘way’ that amount is spent.

I want to write a poem.
I know it and I want to do it.
Determined and Focused.
Pen in hand.
Eyes on the paper.
But I hate to force it out.
It is like painfully extracting
ideas from my head.
It hurts and I can feel the strain.
I’m thinking and thinking.
I want it to flow like a river,
I want it to move like a breeze.
Instead it creeps slowly like a snail,
Oozes out like a viscous liquid.
Takes so much effort to write each line.
It drains me physically and emotionally.
And Ive been sitting in the same place
for half an hour. Then, abruptly
it is over.
I’m done. I’m exhausted.
I read it again.
And my satisfaction overwhelms every other feeling.

It’s time, It’s time
to say goodbye.
Watch the last sun
set in the evening sky.
You dont even know and
things just pass by…
But they stay with you
to make eternal every
moment of life that
seems just too short.
Keep them in your heart
and let them lie there
and let them travel with you
and fly.

I miss holding that hand.
It gave me such warmth,
So much of love and care
that looked after me all along.

You were there.
Just when I started talking,
you stopped.
I was sent away to learn;
Never had a chance
to learn from you.
For, you went far away too.
Only, never to come back.
Sometimes , I wonder how
The Gods can be so cruel.

Now, you’re gone;
You live on as memories
of childhood flash back;
That innocent smile,
the kind beautiful eyes.
They’re still watching over me.

You’re happy and blessed
wherever you are. I hope.
Because I wont be
unless you are.

The last two days have zipped passed so fast that i couldnt write yesterday.But, Im a man of my word and so , even though i have to get up early next morning to get ready and go to college, Im still going to write today. What has been keeping me busy ? Same old stuff.. friends , movies, and this time -college. Maybe Ayushma..you are right. I shouldnt write about every damn thing that happens during the day . But i really can’t help it. Theres just so much happening . So much interesting and fun.

On the 28th i met up with some of my seniors ( Shefali, Saranya, Friyana, Atya and Kallu) along with Raghav. Saw ‘Hangover’… a really really funny movie . But it was such a guy movie . Just all opposite of a chick flick . which is why i think i liked it. Dont get angry all you chick flick lovers (including my sis) -  I thought Twilight was Ooook. Had lunch at mondi’s(?) and just discussing stuff about college and malhar and how i was really excited and nervous about my first day in college. Then went to ‘ Theobromas ‘ which in some language translates to food of God. And i think it is. It was a place where we got all kinds of chocolate stuff. And Shefali ordered one of the only three non egg chocolate thingies available. It was called chocoholic and its the best cake/pastry/chocolate thingie ive ever eaten in my life. Wonder what it would taste like with egg ? Looked very yummy for sure but i dont wanna try it out . Im happy with my chocoholic .

In the meanwhile , I found out that my Dad hat met with a car accident. From what he told me later and from the pictures it must have been pretty freaky. But thankfully nothing happened to him .. well not much . Only got hit near his shoulder a bit. The camry was smashed. One lesson my Dad told me he’d learnt : always wear a seat belt. Always.

So , instead of my Dad, I had to go and attend a marriage function that he was supposed to go to. Transformation time – put down my spiked up hair and make it side parting, change into trousers and a tuck in shirt with a leather belt. I was just short of looking like a nerd cuz i didnt apply oil. ( Im not kidding about this one). You can ask Trilok , who later came to my house in the night and we had some bhel because I had so coneveniently forgotten to have dinner at the marriage in the hurry to head back home. Then started watching Fast and Furious until Trilok got bombed by his Dad for not coming home cuz it was almost 12. I still finished the movie by 1 and i had college the next day ! very first day !